Sir Jeremy Fleming is due to give a speech on Tuesday in which he will publicly announce that Ukrainian forces are overwhelmingly winning the battle both physically and virtually. The speech will also see the spy chief announce that Russia is struggling with the economic and human cost of the conflict.
According to Sir Jeremy, Moscow is suffering “staggering” losses both from troops who have been killed and equipment which has been destroyed.
The speech will note that Ukrainian troops are successfully “turning the tide” in the conflict.
The intelligence officer will critique the Russian President’s decision-making, calling it “flawed” after it failed to take Kyiv within the first few days of the conflict and not making the progress he aimed for in the East of Ukraine.
Sir Jeremy will say: “It’s a high stakes strategy that is leading to strategic errors in judgement.
“Their gains are being reversed. The costs to Russia – in people and equipment are staggering.
“We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out.”
He will continue: “Russia’s forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilisation of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation.”
The Director of GCHQ will speak at the Royal United Services Institute in London to analyse Putin’s decisions in Ukraine and how the West’s retaliation is teaching Beijing about the West.
In response to the sanctions being seen placed on Russia from the West, Sir Jeremy will say how China may learn to use digital currencies to not only track people’s transactions but to also protect its economy from such sanctions as in Russia.
It is also a concern that China is gradually preparing for an invasion of Taiwan and may have learned from Russia to support its defences against western response.